Staying Put: The Effects of Universal School Choice on Arizona’s Public Schools

This study evaluates the effects of Arizona’s 2022 adoption of universal school choice on students who remain in traditional public schools, a group that is often overlooked in school choice research. Drawing from enrollment data from the Arizona Department of Education from the 2021–22 to 2024–25 academic years, the analysis examines public schools most affected by enrollment shifts and measures changes in staffing quality, academic performance, attendance, accountability grades, and per-pupil funding. Paired t-tests and regression models reveal a clear rise in emergency and out-of-field teachers, while chronic absenteeism fell sharply across the study period, reaching its lowest rate since the outbreak of COVID-19. State accountability grades increased, yet this three-year period did not see large gains in test performance. Per-pupil funding increased in the final year for the schools studied, but the overall fiscal context remains unclear since total funding levels were not analyzed. The findings paint a mixed picture about universal school choice’s early impact on Arizona, with progress in attendance offset by persistent staffing problems and stagnant academic outcomes. While this article does not offer substantive suggestions, it highlights the need to increase scrutiny of universal school choice and emphasizes the need to reform the nation’s education system as a whole.