Illustrative Social Return on Investment Assessment of Selected Health Priorities in India’s Union Budget 2026–27

Introduction: Conventional health-budget analysis describes financial inputs and service outputs, whereas Social Return on Investment (SROI) expresses broader stakeholder-valued outcomes in monetary terms. Full evaluative SROI generally requires stakeholder engagement and programme-specific outcome data, which are unavailable for newly announced Budget 2026–27 priorities. This modelling conducted to develop a reproducible, sensitivity-tested model-based SROI assessment of three health priorities announced in India’s Union Budget 2026–27, distinguishing official policy information from modelling assumptions. Methods: This secondary-data modelling study assessed three priorities: mental-health infrastructure; new addition of allied-health professionals and multiskilled caregivers; and emergency and trauma care in district hospitals. A five-year base case used a 5% discount rate, 30% deadweight, 20% attribution, zero displacement and 10% annual drop-off. Because programme-specific investment and outcome data were unavailable, investment and annual gross monetised-benefit values were specified as transparent scenario inputs rather than observed programme values. SROI was calculated as the present value of adjusted social value divided by investment, with net present value (NPV) reported separately. Conservative and alternative scenarios were examined. Results: Base-case illustrative model outputs - modelled SROI ratios were 4.01:1, 3.34:1 and 3.21:1 for mental-health infrastructure, allied-health/caregiver workforce development and emergency/trauma care, respectively. Conservative scenarios reduced these ratios to 1.71:1, 1.43:1 and 1.37:1. Conclusion: The model suggests potential positive social value under the specified assumptions; however, these are modelled estimates, not observed or realised returns. For definitive SROI assessment, local outcome measurement and empirical cost data are required.