The Epistemic Asymmetry of Fundamental Physics: Predictive Success, Conceptual Determination, and Ontological Commitment

The Standard Model of particle physics, General Relativity, and the ɅCDM cosmological model represent monumental predictive achievements in modern physical science. However, they exhibit a persistent epistemic asymmetry: their extraordinary capacity to generate accurate predictions and survive empirical tests frequently outruns the conceptual determination of their foundational categories and the ontological warrant for their central posits. This paper develops a diagnostic framework and taxonomy to systematically identify, categorize, and compare distinct forms of epistemic asymmetry across contemporary fundamental physics. Examining four central cases interpretive (the quantum measurement problem), microphysical (particle dark matter), explanatory (the cosmological constant), and methodological (naturalness) alongside two limiting and boundary cases (quantum gravity and the structural incompleteness of the Standard Model beyond its domain), the study introduces a four-criterion diagnostic matrix (predictive adequacy, empirical discrimination, conceptual determination, and ontological warrant). Ultimately, this diagnostic tool provides researchers with a structured, domain-restricted method to distinguish how and why predictive or methodological success fails to secure conceptual and ontological determination, offering a rigorous path for evaluating theoretical commitments in fundamental physics without presuming general antirealist conclusions.