Can agricultural green development policies improve the carbon performance of enterprises? Empirical evidence from listed agricultural enterprises in China

Introduction Carbon management in agricultural enterprises is deeply embedded in the agricultural industrial ecosystem. The policy of green development in agriculture provides a key path to solve the predicament of carbon reduction in agriculture. Methods This paper, based on the microdata of 245 listed agricultural enterprises in China from 2011 to 2024, uses a dual machine learning model to investigate the impact of agricultural green development policies on the carbon performance (CP) of agricultural enterprises and its mechanism of action. Results The research findings are as follows: First, the green development policy for agriculture has significantly enhanced the CP of agricultural enterprises. Second, mechanism tests have shown that promoting green technological innovation, alleviating financing constraints, and increasing external media attention are the three core paths for agricultural green development policies to enhance the CP of agricultural enterprises. Thirdly, heterogeneity analysis indicates that this policy has a more significant effect on enhancing CP for agricultural enterprises located in the second batch of pilot zones, regions with strong environmental regulations, and those with lower digitalization levels. Fourth, an expansive analysis reveals that there is a significant synergy between the agricultural green development policy and the green finance reform and innovation pilot zone policy in enhancing the CP of agricultural enterprises, and the implementation effect of the compound policy is superior to that of a single policy. Discussion This article expands the research on the environmental effects of agricultural green development policies from the perspective of micro enterprises, providing empirical evidence and policy inspirations for optimizing the policy system of agricultural green development, strengthening policy coordination, and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of agricultural enterprises.