PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN UZBEKISTAN: DEBT DYNAMICS AND PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT

Uzbekistan has expanded sovereign borrowing while maintaining rapid economic growth and gradually changing the composition of its public debt. This paper evaluates whether the historical relationship between public debt and economic growth has remained stable over time and whether changes in the debt portfolio structure affect the interpretation of aggregate debt indicators. The empirical analysis uses annual data for 2000–2023 and combines descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, a parsimonious ordinary least squares (OLS) model, Newey–West robust inference, unit-root diagnostics, and subperiod comparisons. Official public debt data for 2023 and 2025 are used to assess currency, interest-rate, and maturity exposures. Public debt is negatively associated with real GDP growth over the full historical sample; however, this relationship varies considerably across subperiods. Formal stability tests do not establish 2017 as a definitive structural break. The portfolio analysis indicates continued reliance on external and foreign-currency borrowing, alongside relatively long debt maturities and a growing local-currency component of domestic debt. The findings suggest that public debt sustainability in Uzbekistan is more comprehensively assessed through a combination of debt levels, financing structure, debt-servicing capacity, and contingent fiscal risks rather than through the debt-to-GDP ratio alone.