Contextual constraints and shot quality in elite Olympic curling

Abstract Curling is a turn-based team sport in which shot selection and execution occur under changing match contexts. Using official shot-by-shot data from the Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games, this study examined contextual associations with shot selection and shot quality and within-match process differences between winning and losing teams. The dataset comprised 18,402 shots from 147 matches, including 18,358 shots with valid official success percentages. Descriptive analyses, chi-square tests, paired winner–loser comparisons, match-level difference logistic regression, mixed-effects models and supplementary post-match classification models were applied. Shot-type distribution was significantly associated with shot phase, hammer status, score state, event type and critical-end status, with the largest associations observed for shot phase and hammer status. Winning teams showed higher success percentages in late-phase and take-out-family shots and in the study-defined pressure context (late-match, close-score situations). They also had more favourable stealing-related outcomes; psychological pressure was not directly measured. In the multivariable match-level model, late-phase success difference and net stolen-end difference remained associated with match outcome. Across the primary and sensitivity mixed-effects analyses, shot phase, event type, score state and critical-end status showed comparatively consistent associations with shot quality. These findings suggest that context-specific shot-quality measures and end-level scoring outcomes describe aspects of within-match performance differences not summarized by overall shot success alone. The results represent observational post-match associations rather than causal effects or evidence of generalizable pre-match prediction.