CAMS/JUNO v1.2 prospective predictions 2027–2028: United States, China and Australia

Preregistered prediction register. Lodges 32 falsifiable, probability-weighted predictions about the scored organisational state of the United States (12 claims), China (11) and Australia (9) in 2027 and 2028, under the JUNO v1.2-Final classifier of the Complex Adaptive Model State (CAMS) framework, before the outcomes are scored. Each claim has a stated probability, a falsification rule and a tier showing how stable it is across the several scored datasets that exist for each society (the datasets disagree by more than the instrument's stated margin, so every claim is reported on every dataset). The register states its scoring rules in advance. It is a thermometer reading projected forward, not a crystal ball, and takes no political position. JUNO v1.2 is not externally validated; scoring this register is part of the prospective test. The deposit includes the register (PDF and Markdown), a public web-page version, the exact input data and the code that regenerates every probability (fixed seed). It does not replace or edit the frozen 28 August 2026 register (P-01 to P-12) or the 12 July 2026 six-nation memo, which remain in force and are scored separately. Licence: text and data CC BY 4.0; code MIT (see LICENSE-CODE-MIT.txt inside the zip).

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24046638
Primary Topic
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

CAMS/JUNO v1.2 prospective predictions 2027–2028: United States, China and Australia

Kari McKern
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
International Relations and Foreign Policy
article

CAMS/JUNO v1.2 prospective predictions 2027–2028: United States, China and Australia

Kari McKern
article en

Abstract

Preregistered prediction register. Lodges 32 falsifiable, probability-weighted predictions about the scored organisational state of the United States (12 claims), China (11) and Australia (9) in 2027 and 2028, under the JUNO v1.2-Final classifier of the Complex Adaptive Model State (CAMS) framework, before the outcomes are scored. Each claim has a stated probability, a falsification rule and a tier showing how stable it is across the several scored datasets that exist for each society (the datasets disagree by more than the instrument's stated margin, so every claim is reported on every dataset). The register states its scoring rules in advance. It is a thermometer reading projected forward, not a crystal ball, and takes no political position. JUNO v1.2 is not externally validated; scoring this register is part of the prospective test. The deposit includes the register (PDF and Markdown), a public web-page version, the exact input data and the code that regenerates every probability (fixed seed). It does not replace or edit the frozen 28 August 2026 register (P-01 to P-12) or the 12 July 2026 six-nation memo, which remain in force and are scored separately. Licence: text and data CC BY 4.0; code MIT (see LICENSE-CODE-MIT.txt inside the zip).

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
International Relations and Foreign Policy
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