Predictive Environmental Health Risk Assessment for Military Operations: From Historical Experience to Science-Informed Decision-Making

Military operations may create environmental exposure pathways with consequences that persist long after immediate tactical objectives have been achieved. Hazardous chemicals, petroleum products, contaminated soils and water, damaged industrial infrastructure, waste, combustion products, and other military-related environmental hazards can affect civilian populations, military personnel, ecosystems, and food systems for decades. Although environmental toxicology and exposure science have substantially improved understanding of these risks, long-term environmental and public-health consequences remain insufficiently integrated into military planning and operational decision-making. The military use of tactical herbicides during the Vietnam War provides one of the best-documented historical examples of this institutional and scientific challenge. Between 1961 and 1971, extensive areas of southern Vietnam were sprayed with herbicide formulations containing 2,4,5-T, some of which were contaminated with 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD). Subsequent research has documented the persistence of TCDD in soils, sediments, aquatic environments, and food chains. Reported geographical differences in congenital heart disease and other adverse health outcomes also warrant continued investigation of possible associations with historical environmental exposure, while recognizing the methodological complexity of establishing causality in population-based studies. The significance of the Vietnam experience extends beyond retrospective documentation of contamination. It illustrates a broader institutional problem: scientific observations, technical warnings, and environmental-health evidence may exist without becoming an effective component of operational decision-making. This paper proposes an initial framework for Predictive Environmental Health Risk Assessment in military operations.