Deconstructing the Meritocracy Myth in the Korean Job Market

This study examines the decoupling between quantitative credentials (GPA, language tests, certificates) and employment outcomes in South Korea's college-graduate entry market (N = 26,350) between 2015 and 2019. Multinomial logit QMLE estimation shows that in the private sector, exposed to conglomerate capital volatility and supply chain shocks, the marginal contribution of credential signals collapses (with the credential contribution ratio falling to 0.44), confirming the dominance of project fit. In the public sector, despite a substantial quota expansion from 23,000 to 47,000, congestion externalities from private-sector applicant spillovers hold passing cutoffs invariant (TOST p < 0.001), generating a congestion trap. Thus, credential neutralization reflects macro-capital shifts and dual-sector entry bottlenecks rather than deficient individual effort.