Fertility policy relaxation, female executives and corporate overseas performance: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Purpose This paper examines how listed firms adapt to China's 2013 fertility policy relaxation. It asks whether the reform affected firms' overseas performance, identifies the female-executive channel and explores conditions that ease adaptation, to inform supporting measures reconciling demographic goals with corporate vitality. Design/methodology/approach Using the selective two-child reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we compare A-share firms in industries with above- and below-median female employment shares in a difference-in-differences design over 2009–2022, supported by placebo, Propensity Score Matching-Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) and other robustness checks. Findings Overseas revenue of treated firms fell by roughly 17%in the short-run adjustment phase, operating through a reduced share of female executives. Financial slack and supplier protection disclosure cushion the effect, which concentrates in non-high-tech, heavy-polluting and state-owned firms and eastern China – transitional frictions, not a long-run policy harm. Research limitations/implications Overseas revenue measures scale, not profitability, and the mediation evidence is associational; finer executive data and causal mediation designs are promising extensions. Practical implications Internationally exposed firms can adapt more smoothly through succession planning, flexible arrangements for executives in childbearing years and stable supplier relationships. Social implications Broader social sharing of childbearing costs and public childcare investment would ease firms' adaptation and align the reform's demographic goals with corporate international development. Originality/value The study links macro fertility policy to corporate internationalization for the first time, provides quasi-experimental evidence on the female-executive channel and reframes the debate around constructive supporting arrangements during the policy transition.