RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PER CAPITA ENERGY USE AND GDP PER CAPITA IN ASEAN COUNTRIES: A CORRELATION AND REGRESSION STUDY, 2000–2022

Energy use and income tend to rise together, but the strength of this relationship differs across countries and matters for energy planning.This study examined the relationship between primary energy use per capita and GDP per capita in nine ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2022, using data from Our World in Data that compile international energy statistics and the Maddison Project Database.Pearson and Spearman correlations, cross-sectional and pooled log-log regressions, fixed-effects panel regressions, and country-specific regressions were applied.Energy use and income were very strongly correlated, both across countries in 2022 (Pearson r = 0.954 on log values, p < 0.001; Spearman ρ = 0.900, p = 0.001) and in the pooled panel of 207 observations (r = 0.969).Across countries, a 1% higher GDP per capita was associated with 1.32% higher energy use per capita (R² = 0.91).Within countries over time, the fixed-effects elasticity was 1.22.Country-specific elasticities ranged from 0.45 in the Philippines and Indonesia to 2.17 in Laos.The Philippines had the lowest elasticity and the weakest fit (r = 0.821): its GDP per capita grew by 3.6% per year while its energy use per capita grew by only 1.2% per year.In 2022, Filipinos used about 40% less energy per person than predicted for their income level, and Vietnam, with a similar income, used 2.6 times as much.The findings suggest that Philippine growth has been relatively light in energy use, but that low energy access and high electricity prices may also be limiting consumption.