SHORT-LET CONVERSION AND SUPPLY OF CONVENTIONAL RESIDENTIAL RENTAL HOUSING IN ABEOKUTA

Short-let accommodation has created alternative income opportunities for property owners, but its expansion through the conversion of existing rental properties may reduce housing available to long-term tenants. This study examines the effect of short-let conversion on the supply of conventional residential rental housing in Abeokuta, Nigeria. Guided by Rent Gap Theory, the study considers property conversion as a response to differences between the net returns obtainable from short-let operation and conventional tenancy. A quantitative explanatory design and retrospective property-market inventory were adopted. Data obtained from estate surveying firms, property-management firms, short-let operators and verified listings produced an inventory of 205 residential properties and a neighbourhood-quarter panel of 96 observations covering 2020–2025. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and negative binomial regression were employed, while Poisson and log-linear fixed-effects models provided robustness checks. The results show that 61.3% of identified short-let properties were converted from conventional tenancy, with flats and self-contained apartments recording the highest conversion rates. Conversion was more concentrated in Ibara/GRA and Oke-Ilewo. Short-let conversion had a negative and significant effect on conventional rental supply (β = −0.084; p = .007; IRR = 0.919), indicating that an additional conversion was associated with an 8.1% reduction in expected conventional rental supply. The rent gap also exerted a negative significant effect, whereas new housing supply increased conventional rental availability. The study concludes that the effect of short-let accommodation depends on its source of supply. The study recommends the registration and systematic monitoring of short-let conversions, particularly in neighbourhoods with high conversion rates, to prevent excessive withdrawal of properties from the conventional rental market.