From global solution space to local strategies: integrating adaptation pathways and global scenarios for water scarcity

Abstract Adaptation to climate-change-induced water scarcity requires structured approaches to develop strategies that are plausible under uncertain climate and socioeconomic futures. We test a framework for integrating adaptation pathways into the scenario framework across three case studies: Caribbean SIDS, Rural Ethiopian Communities, and the Rhine-Meuse Delta. The framework was applied to characterize options regarding their plausibility under different scenarios and their alignment with different strategic orientation, normative orientation and decision-making structure. The framework offers (a) a flexible starting point to generate pathways, and (b) a central reference for evaluating and validating assumptions. It also helps to structure reflections across cases, scenarios and paradigms. We identify conceptual challenges that require further investigation: the benefits of scenario-neutral approaches; the addition of a measure-intensity dimension to distinguish incremental and transformative options; and more explicit sequencing guidance. We further reflect on the framework from the perspective of the global modeling community.