Prey interactions and environmental conditions influence winter distribution of grey wolves in northeastern Ontario

Predator species distribution information is important for understanding northern ecosystems. A generalist predator, the grey wolf (Canis lupis (Linnaeus, 1758)) is an important component of Canada’s ecosystems. While well studied in boreal habitats, grey wolf distribution in wetland- and peatland-dominated habitats are less well described and the transition between these different habitats may present a transition in distribution patterns, particularly if driven by available prey. We investigated patterns in grey wolf distribution across northeastern Ontario with species distribution models using aerial species sign observations. We included environmental factors previously identified as influencing grey wolf distribution, including land cover, vegetation, and distance to linear features. Prey factors included four potential prey species distributions. Grey wolf predicted suitable winter habitat was more abundant in the Ontario Shield compared to the Hudson Bay Lowlands. Environmental factors, primarily snow depth and elevation, and prey factors both substantially influenced predicted wolf habitat suitability. Beaver (Castor canadensis (Kuhl, 1820)), typically an alternate prey species for grey wolf, had a strong positive influence on wolf habitat suitability, potentially due to low moose abundance (Alces alces (Linnaeus, 1758)) in peatlands. These results suggest that changes to predator-prey dynamics and changes to the landscape both have the potential to impact wolf distribution, which may be particularly important given anticipated future development in the region.