Do Unused Credit Commitments Foreshadow Loan Growth and Bank Failures? Evidence from 7,687 FDIC-Insured Banks, 2004-2013, and the Distribution in June 2026

Unused commitments are a claim on future lending. Using FDIC Call Report field UC for 7,687 banks in 2004, I find that banks in the top quintile of unused commitments over assets grew loans 52.1% from 2004 to 2007 against 24.6% in the bottom quintile, and failed in 2008-2013 at a rate of 11.6% against 2.3%. In an HC1 OLS regression, each extra point of the UC/assets ratio predicts 26.4 points of loan growth (standard error 6.1). In a logit for failure, the average marginal effect of UC/assets is 3.26 points; controlling for loan growth cuts the coefficient but leaves it positive. In June 2026, among 4,494 banks the mean UC/assets ratio is 0.204 and the asset-weighted aggregate is 0.407, so unused commitments remain large relative to the pre-crisis cross-section.