Agricultural Frontier Expansion and Land Concentration: Insights From Colombian Municipalities

ABSTRACT Existing literature argues that expanding the agricultural frontier fosters land concentration, but most evidence is based on single regions within countries. This paper uses countrywide panel data for Colombia and a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) strategy to compare municipalities with evidence of post‐1964 frontier expansion with otherwise similar municipalities without such expansion. We show that approximately 8% of Colombian municipalities can be classified as frontier municipalities. Furthermore, we document pronounced regional differences in land concentration (measured as the share of rural private cadastral area held in ≥ 500‐ha holdings), with an upward trend in many frontier regions. Consistent with these patterns, our PSM estimates indicate that frontier municipalities experienced an increase in land concentration that was at least nine percentage points higher than in comparable non‐frontier municipalities. We also provide empirical evidence consistent with forced displacement being one plausible channel in the relationship between frontier exposure and higher land concentration in Colombia. These findings support the view that frontier expansion is associated with higher land concentration and imply that, in the absence of broader structural reforms, frontier‐expansion policies are unlikely to reduce land inequality.