Dominant Failure Mode Identification of the Riverine Levee System: A Holistic Framework

Abstract Riverine levee systems face significant challenges due to their extensive length and complex failure mechanisms, which can lead to unexpected consequences during extreme flood events. Previous studies primarily focused on isolated sections, neglecting the uncertainty of failure locations and modes along entire levee systems, thereby limiting comprehensive risk assessment. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a holistic framework for dominant failure mode identification across riverine levee systems, which fully considers the variability of hydrological, geometric, and material properties, as well as the correlation of different failure modes. This framework not only enhances levee resilience by defining a prioritization index to identify weak segments and dominant failure modes, but also provides guidance for targeted levee reinforcement to withstand increasing flood hazards. By applying the proposed framework to the 61.286-km Beijiang levee system in China, it was found that piping was the dominant failure mode in the Shijiao segment during the 2022 floods, aligning with observed failures. Additionally, the distribution of dominant failure modes of the studied levee under different flood intensities was mapped, highlighting hazardous segments that require targeted reinforcement. These findings contribute to advancing levee safety assessment and support the development of more effective flood management strategies.