Economic growth drivers in Cambodia: Evidence from an ARDL–ECM analysis (2000Q1–2024Q4)

This study examines the determinants of Cambodia's economic growth using quarterly data for 2000–2024 within an autoregressive distributed lag–error correction model (ARDL–ECM) framework, incorporating key structural and macroeconomic determinants and a COVID-19 shock control. The ARDL bounds test supports a long-run cointegrating relationship, while the negative and significant error-correction term indicates adjustment toward equilibrium. The baseline results identify physical capital and labor-force participation as positive long-run correlates of growth, whereas inflation and informal employment are negatively associated with growth. The effects of technological progress, human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality are more sensitive in magnitude, significance, or sign and therefore warrant cautious interpretation . Because several annual variables were temporally disaggregated to quarterly frequency, their estimated short-run effects are interpreted as exploratory rather than as precise quarterly policy effects. Robustness analyses generally support the long-run dynamic relationship, although some coefficient-level sensitivity remains. Overall, the observed associations are consistent with the importance of productive investment, labor utilization, macroeconomic stability, economic formalization, and complementary improvements in human capital, technological capability, and institutional effectiveness for Cambodia's long-term development.