Viradas nas eleições majoritárias brasileiras: quando o segundo turno não repete o primeiro

In 2026, Lula lost the first round by 2.2 million votes and won the runoff. The article askswhether a comeback like this is unusual in Brazilian elections. In 106 of the 413 runoffs decidedbetween 1998 and 2026, the winner had entered the second round at a disadvantage, a rate of25.7%. In the 2026 presidential election the disadvantage was 2.0 points, and in the 51 raceswith a disadvantage of up to 2.5 points the comeback rate was 35.3%. The first-round leadis associated with lower risk and does not eliminate it, and the runoff narrowed the leader’sadvantage in 67.8% of the races. In the model, the margin and the leader’s incumbency arethe two variables most associated. Turnout falls between rounds and falls less when there isa comeback.