OPTIMIZING THE COMPOSITION AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE TAX BURDEN: ARDL–ECM EVIDENCE FOR UZBEKISTAN

This conference paper evaluates how the balance between direct and indirect taxes relates to economic growth and the shadow economy in Uzbekistan. The direct-to-indirect tax ratio (DT/IT) is examined using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and error-correction specifications. The growth-oriented models yield turning points of 75.50% and 76.74%, whereas the shadow-economy specification yields 90.15%. These distinct optima reveal a policy trade-off rather than a single universally optimal tax structure. A coordinated strategy is proposed to strengthen equitable incidence, economic adaptability and formalization. The findings are interpreted as specification-dependent associations, not independently identified causal effects.