When Missing Evidence Becomes False Certainty: Testing Decision Sufficiency Under Partial Observability Across AI-Assisted Systems

Artificial-intelligence systems are increasingly asked to make consequential decisions from incomplete records, changing environments, selective observations, and outputs whose confidence may be better characterized than their evidentiary foundations. A missing measurement, an observation with negative results, and evidence supporting the absence of a condition are not interchangeable. This paper develops the Epistemic Completion Boundary Hypothesis (ECBH): some unjustified conclusive decisions may arise when a system implicitly treats its available representation as sufficiently complete for a particular decision, although task-relevant observational or inferential conditions remain unmet. A Field-oriented Evidence Sufficiency Contract is proposed as a candidate relational representation of observation coverage, missingness, competing hypotheses, decision requirements, loss, temporal validity, provenance, and authority. The proposed representation is not asserted to be a new physical field, a universal ontology, or an established improvement over Bayesian decision theory, partially observable Markov decision processes, selective prediction, conformal methods, or typed provenance graphs. Instead, the paper specifies observational-equivalence conditions, strong evidence-matched comparison arms, falsifiable hypotheses, independent labeling rules, and a prospective cross-domain study spanning autonomous commerce, indoor safety mapping, and clinical decision support. The primary proposed outcome is unjustified conclusive decision rate, evaluated jointly with valid decision coverage, selective risk, calibration, value of additional information, and operational cost. No experiment, human study, clinical validation, or comparative performance result is reported. The intended contribution is a disciplined research protocol for determining whether explicit relational qualification adds measurable value or is reducible to competent conventional engineering.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24025836
Primary Topic
Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
preprint

When Missing Evidence Becomes False Certainty: Testing Decision Sufficiency Under Partial Observability Across AI-Assisted Systems

Rogério Figurelli
3 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
preprint

When Missing Evidence Becomes False Certainty: Testing Decision Sufficiency Under Partial Observability Across AI-Assisted Systems

Rogério Figurelli
preprint en

Abstract

Artificial-intelligence systems are increasingly asked to make consequential decisions from incomplete records, changing environments, selective observations, and outputs whose confidence may be better characterized than their evidentiary foundations. A missing measurement, an observation with negative results, and evidence supporting the absence of a condition are not interchangeable. This paper develops the Epistemic Completion Boundary Hypothesis (ECBH): some unjustified conclusive decisions may arise when a system implicitly treats its available representation as sufficiently complete for a particular decision, although task-relevant observational or inferential conditions remain unmet. A Field-oriented Evidence Sufficiency Contract is proposed as a candidate relational representation of observation coverage, missingness, competing hypotheses, decision requirements, loss, temporal validity, provenance, and authority. The proposed representation is not asserted to be a new physical field, a universal ontology, or an established improvement over Bayesian decision theory, partially observable Markov decision processes, selective prediction, conformal methods, or typed provenance graphs. Instead, the paper specifies observational-equivalence conditions, strong evidence-matched comparison arms, falsifiable hypotheses, independent labeling rules, and a prospective cross-domain study spanning autonomous commerce, indoor safety mapping, and clinical decision support. The primary proposed outcome is unjustified conclusive decision rate, evaluated jointly with valid decision coverage, selective risk, calibration, value of additional information, and operational cost. No experiment, human study, clinical validation, or comparative performance result is reported. The intended contribution is a disciplined research protocol for determining whether explicit relational qualification adds measurable value or is reducible to competent conventional engineering.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

Laika access coming soon