PHARMACEUTICAL IMPORT SUPPLIER CONCENTRATION, DOMINANT SUPPLIER DEPENDENCE, AND SUPPLIER DIVERSIFICATION AS PREDICTORS OF IMPORT GROWTH

This analysis examines whether pharmaceutical sourcing structure predicts subsequent import growth, addressing international debates about diversification and trade performance. Annual United Nations Comtrade records accessed through World Integrated Trade Solution cover eight economies during 2010 to 2025, yielding 120 aligned observations for separate regressions with country and year fixed effects. A 0.01 increase in concentration, a 10-percentage point increase in the largest supplier share and 10 additional partners are associated with growth differences of −1.363, −2.506 and −2.052 percentage points, respectively. Conventional 95 percent confidence intervals include zero throughout. Restricted wild cluster bootstrap inference identifies evidence for dominant supplier dependence, although disagreement with conventional inference limits certainty. All estimates remain negative when individual countries are excluded. These patterns distinguish geographical sourcing characteristics from demonstrated substitution capacity or disruption transmission. The contribution is an outcome specific qualification of diversification arguments: broader sourcing does not establish faster nominal import expansion. Procurement and policy assessments should evaluate expenditure distribution and supplier exposure separately, without equating import growth with secure medicine provision.