Home Advantage, Toss Decision and Match Outcome in Men's T20 International Cricket: A Multilevel Analysis of 2010–2025 Matches

Background: Home advantage and the pre-match coin toss are widely believed to influence cricket results, but evidence for men's Twenty20 International (T20I) cricket predates the 2019 extension of T20I status to all International Cricket Council members. Objective: To estimate home advantage and the effect of the toss on match outcome in men's T20Is, and to examine whether home advantage differed between eras and between Full Member and Associate matchups. Methods: This retrospective observational study analysed 2,889 decided men's T20Is played between 2010 and 2025 (105 teams; 70 host countries) using open Cricsheet data. Mixed-effects logistic regression with crossed random intercepts for team and opponent estimated odds ratios (ORs) for venue status (home, away, neutral), winning the toss and batting first. Sensitivity analyses included 1,000 random team selections and a Bradley–Terry model. Results: Home teams won 56.8% of 1,671 home/away matches. Playing at home rather than away was associated with higher odds of winning (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.45–2.36), whereas winning the toss (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.86–1.23) and batting first (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.74–1.06) were not. Home advantage was absent in 2010–2018 (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.61–1.64) but substantial in 2019–2025 (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.75–3.10), and was largest between Associate nations (OR 2.82, 95% CI 1.90–4.18). Findings were consistent across sensitivity analyses (Bradley–Terry OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.26–2.06). Conclusions: Since universal T20I status was introduced, home advantage has become a substantial determinant of men's T20I outcomes, particularly among Associate nations, whereas the toss has no measurable effect.