Short-Run Effects of AfCFTA Implementation on Export Product Diversification: Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Analysis

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to expand intra-African trade and support structural change. This study evaluates theshort-runlink between AfCFTA implementation and export product diversification, using a difference-in-differences design centered on the 2021 commencement of commercial trading. Using annual UN Comtrade data for 41 African economies from 2015 to 2023, diversification is measured as the number of HS six-digit products exported. Country and year fixed effects control for time-invariant characteristics and common shocks. The estimated post-implementation effect on log diversification is not statistically significant; event study tests confirm parallel pre-treatment trends, with no early diversification gains.