Economic instability and innovation activity of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine: dependencies and relationships

The article examines the multifaceted interdependencies between economic instability and the innovation activities of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises amidst ongoing wartime shocks and the imperatives of post-war recovery. It comprehensively systematizes key forms of instability—spanning macroeconomic disruptions, market volatility, institutional fragility, direct security risks, and climatic pressures—alongside core categories of agricultural innovations, including technological, process, logistical, and managerial advancements. The study identifies specific transmission channels of mutual influence, focusing on the elevated investment threshold under extreme uncertainty, severe liquidity and credit constraints, asymmetric operational impacts across farm sizes, and the critical feedback effect through which adapted innovations mitigate farm vulnerability to systemic crises. To formalize these interactions, we develop simplified mathematical relationships and an econometric specification for subsequent empirical testing. We pay particular attention to real-world friction factors: sharp price shocks in fuel and fertilizers, domestic and global wheat price disparities, logistical bottlenecks following deep-water seaport disruptions, the high costs of alternative land corridors, and state support mechanisms that remain inadequate relative to the scale of systemic losses. An illustrative calculation models an enterprise’s dynamic investment threshold across varying volatility scenarios, showing how postponed capital expenditure impairs long-term productivity. Finally, the authors support targeted policy recommendations to de-risk private agricultural investments, expand access to credit guarantees, and prioritize incremental, resource-saving innovations. Keywords: economic instability, innovation activity, agricultural enterprises, uncertainty, volatility, resilience, state support, martial law, Ukraine.