Shared policy, unequal protection: climate justice and household vulnerability in four flood- and heat-exposed districts of Pakistan

Abstract Climate justice requires that protection from extreme weather follows social vulnerability, yet this is rarely tested within countries using linked household and governance evidence. This study examined four districts of Pakistan that share one national climate-policy framework but differ in hazard profile: Sohbatpur, Jacobabad, Muzaffargarh and Swat. Using the distributive, procedural and recognition dimensions of climate justice, it combined a survey of 240 climate-affected households, 42 key-informant interviews, screening of 100 public buildings and coding of 12 policy and finance documents. A composite exposure–sensitivity–adaptive-capacity index ranged from 0.78 in Sohbatpur and 0.74 in Jacobabad to 0.66 in Muzaffargarh and 0.51 in Swat; the ordering held under 91% of 20,000 random weighting schemes, and household scores differed strongly between districts (Kruskal–Wallis H = 197.0, p < 0.001). The most exposed district, Muzaffargarh, was not the most vulnerable. Sanitation deprivation, waterborne disease and distress asset sales were concentrated in the southern districts, whereas savings, home modification and consultation were highest in Swat; only 12–18% of southern households had ever been consulted on adaptation, against 38% in Swat. Other deficits were shared: 85 of 100 buildings required detailed structural assessment, 31% of households had not regained pre-disaster income, and insurance was almost absent. Half of the documents recognised the districts only in general terms. District adaptation capacity and budgets, routine consultation, disaggregated vulnerability data and universal safety standards for schools and health facilities emerge as priorities for just and sustainable climate adaptation.