Resource dependence and the energy transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from nonlinear and regional effects in a selected panel

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) possesses substantial renewable energy potential, yet its energy transition remains constrained by energy poverty and dependence on natural-resource revenues. Despite growing evidence of conditional resource-rent effects, limited attention has jointly examined the direct nonlinear relationship and subregional heterogeneity in SSA. This study examined the nonlinear and regional dimensions of the relationship between natural-resource rents and renewable energy consumption using panel data from 15 selected SSA countries over 2000–2021. Fixed- and random-effects models were estimated alongside quadratic and regional interaction specifications, with additional robustness and sensitivity analyses. The nonlinear results revealed an inverted U-shaped relationship: resource rents had a positive coefficient ( β = 0.355, p = 0.012), while the squared term was negative ( β = −0.0085, p = 0.007). The terms were jointly significant ( p = 0.027), yielding a turning point of 20.89% of GDP (95% CI: 13.45–28.33%). However, only 19 of 321 observations (5.92%) exceeded the turning point, and excluding Gabon weakened the joint significance ( p = 0.211), indicating upper-tail sensitivity. Additional socioeconomic controls broadly preserved the nonlinear pattern, with turning points ranging from 15.38% to 23.50%. Separately, the regional interaction model indicated a stronger positive marginal association between resource rents and renewable energy consumption for the West African subsample relative to the other selected SSA countries. Energy imports were positively associated with renewable energy consumption, whereas electricity access was negatively associated. The findings demonstrate nonlinear and regionally heterogeneous associations, highlighting the importance of resource-revenue diversification, renewable investment, and context-sensitive energy policies in SSA.