The Ceiling's Second Messenger: Counting Saturation Predicts a Steepening in the Diffuse Neutrino Spectrum at 3.02e18 eV

Counting saturation's cap E_ind = 3.02e18 eV, pre-registered as a break in the cosmic-ray spectrum in batch 1, is applied to its second messenger: the diffuse neutrino spectrum. The cap sits 0.480 dex above the cosmogenic flux peak landmark (~1e18 eV) and 2.681 dex above the Glashow resonance — no PeV-band feature is predicted, and that fence is printed on the paper's face. The prediction: a steepening of the diffuse neutrino tail within +-0.1 dex of 3.02e18 eV, registered before any diffuse EeV neutrino flux has been detected. The detection budget (SIMULATED, NOT MEASURED, fixed-address Poisson likelihood test as in the cosmic-ray instrument) is honestly weak: marginal at 100 events above 1 EeV in the most generous spectral world (median 2DeltaLL 8.5), grading only at ~300 events (25.5), blind in the pessimistic world. The simulation's first self-check demanded grading at N=100 and failed; the correction is disclosed on the paper's face.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24013775
Primary Topic
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
Type
preprint
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preprint

The Ceiling's Second Messenger: Counting Saturation Predicts a Steepening in the Diffuse Neutrino Spectrum at 3.02e18 eV

William Alexander Aldred
4 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
preprint

The Ceiling's Second Messenger: Counting Saturation Predicts a Steepening in the Diffuse Neutrino Spectrum at 3.02e18 eV

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

Counting saturation's cap E_ind = 3.02e18 eV, pre-registered as a break in the cosmic-ray spectrum in batch 1, is applied to its second messenger: the diffuse neutrino spectrum. The cap sits 0.480 dex above the cosmogenic flux peak landmark (~1e18 eV) and 2.681 dex above the Glashow resonance — no PeV-band feature is predicted, and that fence is printed on the paper's face. The prediction: a steepening of the diffuse neutrino tail within +-0.1 dex of 3.02e18 eV, registered before any diffuse EeV neutrino flux has been detected. The detection budget (SIMULATED, NOT MEASURED, fixed-address Poisson likelihood test as in the cosmic-ray instrument) is honestly weak: marginal at 100 events above 1 EeV in the most generous spectral world (median 2DeltaLL 8.5), grading only at ~300 events (25.5), blind in the pessimistic world. The simulation's first self-check demanded grading at N=100 and failed; the correction is disclosed on the paper's face.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
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The Ceiling's Second Messenger: Counting Saturation Predicts a Steepening in the Diffuse Neutrino Spectrum at 3.02e18 eV — William Alexander Aldred · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS