Ending active hostilities in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A comparative assessment of feasibility and pathways to 2028

This article assesses the feasibility of ending active hostilities in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) by 2028 and identifies plausible pathways to that outcome. Existing scholarship has examined these conflicts separately or focused on individual factors, leaving a comparative, time-bound feasibility assessment underdeveloped. This comparative case study employs a structured qualitative methodology, drawing on conflict data and mediation documents. Pathways were scored across three dimensions: military ripeness, mediation coherence and war economy autonomy. The study finds that feasibility is low, though somewhat higher in the DRC than in Sudan. Plausible pathways include externally enforced cessation in Sudan and phased de-escalation in the DRC. A central finding is that financial autonomy and mediation fragmentation create ‘mediation-immune conflict financing’, undermining mediators’ leverage. While it appears that neither conflict is ripe for comprehensive settlement by 2028, avenues exist to target incremental de-escalation, arms flows and mediation coherence.