Determinants of household flood vulnerability in the Nuer Zone of Gambella Region

Abstract Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards, yet household-level evidence from the chronically inundated lowlands of sub-Saharan Africa remains scarce. This study identifies the socio-economic, environmental and perceptual determinants of household flood vulnerability in three chronically flood-prone kebeles of the Nuer Zone, Gambella Region, Ethiopia, using an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design. A structured survey of 297 systematically selected households from a population of 803, complemented by eight focus group discussions and six key informant interviews, classified households as vulnerable where at least two of three criteria (asset loss above the sample median, severe dwelling damage, recovery beyond three months) were met, yielding 183 vulnerable and 114 non-vulnerable cases. Binary logistic regression with fifteen explanatory variables classified 91.9% of households correctly (AUC = 0.9636). Nine variables were significant; eight are interpreted as determinants, with total asset loss retained solely as a validation term. Male headship, literacy of the household head and larger household size lowered the odds of vulnerability, whereas higher income, standard dwelling construction, credit access, floodplain residence and absence of early warning raised them; floodplain residence raised the odds approximately twenty-one-fold and receipt of warning reduced them by about 94%. Qualitative evidence clarified these associations: credit and assistance followed damage, and early warnings reduced losses only where households possessed the transport and high ground to act. The findings provide the first household-level evidence on flood vulnerability determinants in the Nuer Zone and support gender-responsive assistance, dwelling elevation, anticipatory credit and actionable early warning aligned with SDGs 1, 11 and 13.