Oil and gas development alters reproductive outcomes of Ictinia mississippiensis (Mississippi Kites) in mixed-grass prairies

Abstract Rising global energy demand has accelerated the expansion of energy infrastructure into remaining wildlife habitats, with pronounced effects in the North American Great Plains. In mixed-grass prairie ecosystems, energy extraction creates fragmentation, noise pollution, and anthropogenic disturbances that alter habitat structure and impact fitness outcomes for native species. To evaluate these impacts, we analyzed a decade-long dataset on Ictinia mississippiensis (Mississippi Kite) breeding at Packsaddle Wildlife Management Area in northwestern Oklahoma, USA. Nest data were collected during systematic surveys conducted across 5 breeding seasons (May–September) in 2013–2016, 2021–2022, and 2024, and we assessed the influence of energy-related and habitat covariates on daily nest survival rate and annual reproductive output using known-fate logistic exposure models within a Bayesian framework. At the fine scale, daily nest survival rate increased with nest height and the number of trees surrounding the nesting tree but declined as the breeding season progressed (Julian date). At the landscape scale, both daily nest survival rate and annual reproductive output increased with greater distance from roads and active oil wells, whereas they declined with increasing oil pad area. Apparent nest success also increased with distance from oil pads, and successful nests were located, on average, 943 m from oil pads, compared with 368 m for failed nests. These results demonstrate that the ecological effects of energy development could extend across multiple spatial scales and interact with habitat features that are critical for successful I. mississippiensis reproduction, highlighting the broad consequences of human-driven disturbances for avian population dynamics in North American prairies. ​ ​