The impact of eco-innovation, trade, natural resource rents and economic growth on energy consumption in the BRICS

Energy transitions in the BRICS economies require evidence on how technological, trade, resource, and growth dynamics shape aggregate and disaggregated energy demand. This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of eco-innovation, trade openness, natural resource rents, and economic growth on total, fossil-fuel, and renewable energy consumption in the BRICS during 2000–2020. A cross-section augmented autoregressive distributed lag model provides the principal estimates, supported by the augmented mean group estimator, Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality tests, double/debiased machine learning, method of moments quantile regression, Bayesian hierarchical modelling, structural-break detection, and machine-learning interpretation. The CS-ARDL results indicate that eco-innovation reduces total and fossil-fuel consumption while increasing renewable energy use in both horizons. Trade reduces total and fossil-fuel consumption, although its renewable-energy coefficient is positive but statistically insignificant. Natural resource rents and economic growth reduce total energy consumption, whereas their effects differ across fossil and renewable energy measures. Significant negative error-correction terms confirm adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. The supplementary analyses reveal pronounced heterogeneity: quantile estimates vary across the energy-consumption distribution, Bayesian intervals show substantial cross-country uncertainty, and machine-learning results identify nonlinear thresholds. Causality is bidirectional between total energy use and trade, renewable energy use and eco-innovation, and fossil-fuel use and trade, with additional one-way relationships across the model. Overall, the evidence suggests that BRICS energy policy should combine sustained eco-innovation support with country-specific trade, resource-revenue, and growth strategies. Uniform bloc-wide policies are unlikely to be effective because transition pathways depend on national structures and consumption levels. Resource revenues should support renewable infrastructure and economic diversification.