Mexico’s Gender Violence Alert and Violence Against Women and Girls: Causal Evidence from a Difference-in-Differences Analysis

This paper evaluates the impact of Mexico’s Gender Violence Alert (AVGM) on violence against women and girls. AVGM constitutes a key institutional response to violence against women and girls (VAWG) in Mexico, yet causal evidence on its effects remains limited. I employ a staggered difference-in-differences analysis to estimate the effects of AVGM declarations across Mexican municipalities. The analysis draws on longitudinal mortality data as well as survey data. Beyond femicides and self-reported violence, I study two intermediate outcomes: reporting behaviour and attitudes towards abortion as an indicator of gender norms. Across all specifications, the estimates provide no clear evidence that AVGM reduces violence against women and girls. The policy also shows no detectable effects on gender attitudes or reporting to authorities. A supplementary Bayesian updating exercise places these null findings in context and implies a downward revision of prior beliefs about the current effectiveness of AVGM. I discuss possible explanations for the null findings and argue that they are most consistent with implementation weaknesses and limitations in the policy design. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the effectiveness of top-down initiatives, which aim to address gender-based violence.