The One Budget That Closes: The Frame's w_a Separation Is Already Inside the Flown Record's Precision

AF-28 closed the thermo line's third audit with a redirection: the toll's remainder, whatever denominates it, lives in the seam's dynamics or in the frame's other coordinates — and the frame's sharpest other coordinate is its dark-energy point. The frame's cosmology (origination batch 1; paper #28's deficit species carries the same address) puts the dark-energy equation of state at (w₀, w_a) = (−1, −0.661836) in the standard CPL parametrization w(a) = w₀ + w_a(1 − a); ΛCDM sits at (−1, 0). This paper builds the error budget for telling the two apart, in AF-23's shape (required precision against instrument classes, all class figures declared as classes). The geometry first: the two points share w₀ = −1 exactly, so their separation is a pure w_a separation, |Δw_a| = 0.661836, and no precision on w₀ discriminates between these two points at all — the entire budget is one number's. The required precision is σ(w_a) ≤ 0.330918 (2σ), 0.220612 (3σ), 0.132367 (5σ). The instrument audit: Planck alone (σ(w_a) ~ 1.5 class) reaches 0.44σ — nothing; the current combined record class (DESI + CMB + SN combinations, 2024–25; σ(w_a) ≈ 0.30) reaches 2.21σ — the 2σ requirement is already met by flown data; the Euclid/Stage-IV forecast class (≈ 0.13) reaches 5.09σ; the declared-optimistic next-generation class (≈ 0.06) reaches 11.03σ. Against the measured centre (class w_a ≈ −0.75 ± 0.30): the frame point sits 0.29σ away, ΛCDM's 2.50σ — the present record leans toward the frame's side of the line, at leaning strength. The budget's honest limit is AF-23's, inherited: every quoted σ(w_a) is conditional on the CPL parametrization itself, a model floor — but unlike the toll's case, where the floor sat above the required precision and swallowed the budget, here the floor sits below it in flown classes, and the discrimination is live in both directions at every row of the table: a future centre on ΛCDM's point excludes the frame's at the same σ a centre on the frame's point excludes ΛCDM's. Of the thermo ledger's two falsifiers, one is a promise the instruments cannot keep and one is a test the sky is already taking. This paper grades the second: the frame's dark-energy point is falsifiable now, and the record to date has not falsified it.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24015565
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
preprint
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preprint

The One Budget That Closes: The Frame's w_a Separation Is Already Inside the Flown Record's Precision

William Alexander Aldred
5 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
preprint

The One Budget That Closes: The Frame's w_a Separation Is Already Inside the Flown Record's Precision

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

AF-28 closed the thermo line's third audit with a redirection: the toll's remainder, whatever denominates it, lives in the seam's dynamics or in the frame's other coordinates — and the frame's sharpest other coordinate is its dark-energy point. The frame's cosmology (origination batch 1; paper #28's deficit species carries the same address) puts the dark-energy equation of state at (w₀, w_a) = (−1, −0.661836) in the standard CPL parametrization w(a) = w₀ + w_a(1 − a); ΛCDM sits at (−1, 0). This paper builds the error budget for telling the two apart, in AF-23's shape (required precision against instrument classes, all class figures declared as classes). The geometry first: the two points share w₀ = −1 exactly, so their separation is a pure w_a separation, |Δw_a| = 0.661836, and no precision on w₀ discriminates between these two points at all — the entire budget is one number's. The required precision is σ(w_a) ≤ 0.330918 (2σ), 0.220612 (3σ), 0.132367 (5σ). The instrument audit: Planck alone (σ(w_a) ~ 1.5 class) reaches 0.44σ — nothing; the current combined record class (DESI + CMB + SN combinations, 2024–25; σ(w_a) ≈ 0.30) reaches 2.21σ — the 2σ requirement is already met by flown data; the Euclid/Stage-IV forecast class (≈ 0.13) reaches 5.09σ; the declared-optimistic next-generation class (≈ 0.06) reaches 11.03σ. Against the measured centre (class w_a ≈ −0.75 ± 0.30): the frame point sits 0.29σ away, ΛCDM's 2.50σ — the present record leans toward the frame's side of the line, at leaning strength. The budget's honest limit is AF-23's, inherited: every quoted σ(w_a) is conditional on the CPL parametrization itself, a model floor — but unlike the toll's case, where the floor sat above the required precision and swallowed the budget, here the floor sits below it in flown classes, and the discrimination is live in both directions at every row of the table: a future centre on ΛCDM's point excludes the frame's at the same σ a centre on the frame's point excludes ΛCDM's. Of the thermo ledger's two falsifiers, one is a promise the instruments cannot keep and one is a test the sky is already taking. This paper grades the second: the frame's dark-energy point is falsifiable now, and the record to date has not falsified it.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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