The probability of an infinite sequence of heads is zero

Abstract Williamson (2007) has given a celebrated isomorphism or translation-invariance argument that an infinite sequence of heads should have zero probability. However, infinitesimalists who hold that such a sequence has non-zero infinitesimal probability are very likely to deny the translation-invariance (e.g., Weintraub, 2008). Thus, we give two new arguments that an infinite sequence of heads has zero probability, without relying on the full translation-invariance thesis. We also show that two of our arguments extend to the setting of primitive conditional probabilities such as Popper functions and to total comparative probabilities.

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Publication Details

Journal
Philosophical Studies
Published
2026-11-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11098-026-02655-2
Primary Topic
Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

The probability of an infinite sequence of heads is zero

Alexander R. Pruss
Philosophical Studies
Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
article

The probability of an infinite sequence of heads is zero

Alexander R. Pruss
article en

Abstract

Abstract Williamson (2007) has given a celebrated isomorphism or translation-invariance argument that an infinite sequence of heads should have zero probability. However, infinitesimalists who hold that such a sequence has non-zero infinitesimal probability are very likely to deny the translation-invariance (e.g., Weintraub, 2008). Thus, we give two new arguments that an infinite sequence of heads has zero probability, without relying on the full translation-invariance thesis. We also show that two of our arguments extend to the setting of primitive conditional probabilities such as Popper functions and to total comparative probabilities.

Philosophical Studies
Baylor University (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
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