The impact of population growth on land-use: a system dynamics model for sustainable land-use planning in the Elgon Region of Uganda

Land-use and land-cover change poses major environmental challenge in regions where population growth increasingly drives encroachment into ecologically sensitive landscapes. This challenge arises from the dynamics of interacting feedbacks among; demographic change, declining household land size, ecosystem degradation, and delayed institutional responses. Previous studies in the context of Uganda, have investigated these factors, either independently or in pairs, but not holistically. This study developed a system dynamics model to examine the impact of population-driven land-use dynamics in the landslide prone Elgon region of Uganda. A System dynamics method was used to simulate long-term system behaviour under alternative policy intervention scenarios for sustainable land-use planning. Results indicate that the steady increase in the number of households and decline in land per household are the dominant drivers of encroachment into wetlands and forests. Population growth drives significant conversion of natural ecosystems, with forest cover declining from 317 km² in 2020 to 247 km² (22.08%) by 2050 under business-as-usual scenario, amidst rising demand for agricultural land, housing, fuelwood, and infrastructure. Wetland follows a similar trajectory, decreasing sharply from 47.7 km² to 28.3 km² (40.67%) over the same scenario. These trends are reinforced by weak institutional capacity, limited enforcement, low community participation, and inadequate coordination among conservation actors, which collectively undermine effective policy implementation. The findings also highlight the risks of business-as-usual land management and underscore the need for strengthened institutional enforcement, and coordinated conservation interventions. By explicitly capturing feedback-driven dynamics and long-term system responses, the model offers a policy-relevant decision-support tool for evaluating alternative interventions and guiding sustainable land-use planning in population-pressured regions.