Investment planning for the development of entrepreneurial activity in the construction industry under conditions of market uncertainty

This article substantiates the theoretical and methodological foundations of investment planning for developing entrepreneurial activity in the construction industry amid increasing market uncertainty caused by macroeconomic volatility, military risks, and institutional instability. The essence of investment planning is explored through the lens of three complementary approaches–deterministic-normative, scenario-probabilistic, and option-adaptive–each of which forms an independent vector of a construction company’s response to a specific group of uncertainty factors. It is shown that the interaction between groups of market uncertainty–macroeconomic, market-cyclical, resource-technological, and institutional-regulatory–and the aforementioned approaches has a differentiated, and at times contradictory, nature, since increasing the flexibility of an investment plan is often accompanied by an increase in its cost and a complication of the justification procedures. This paper proposes a methodological approach to investment planning in construction, based on a system of economic, market-cycle, resource-technological, financial-credit, and institutional-regulatory indicators integrated into a composite index of an investment plan’s adaptability to market uncertainty. The proposed structure distinguishes four levels of investment planning implementation: macro, regional-sectoral, corporate, and project. Assess each level separately because they differ substantially in access to financial resources, institutional support, and human capital. For Ukraine, the problem is particularly relevant because the potential scale of postwar reconstruction is not matched by a comprehensive planning framework that accounts for regulatory requirements, market changes, and wartime risks. This creates a need for a coordinated methodology consistent with European Union practices. The results can inform state investment policy, strengthen institutional support for the construction sector, and set priorities for reconstructing housing and infrastructure. Keywords: investment planning, entrepreneurial activity, construction industry, market uncertainty, investment risk, real options, scenario modeling, adaptability index, state investment policy, post-war reconstruction.