Risk Assessment of Earth-Rock Dams: A Data-Knowledge Dual-Driven Approach Using IAHP-CRITIC and Two-Dimensional Cloud Model

Abstract This paper proposes a novel data-knowledge dual-driven risk assessment methodology, addressing the limitations of traditional approaches, such as excessive subjectivity, incomplete weighting allocation, and reliance on a single evaluation dimension. The method is based on the improved analytic hierarchy process-criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (IAHP-CRITIC) combined weighting method and two-dimensional cloud model (TDCM). It innovatively constructs a new scoring method for the factor layer of the evaluation index system by utilizing quantitative indexes such as anomaly rate, aging components, change amplitude, and development trend from monitoring data. First, risk probability and consequence are adopted as assessment dimensions to construct a risk assessment system for earth-rock dams, incorporating key monitoring elements such as environmental factors, deformation, seepage, and stress–strain. By analyzing indexes including anomaly rate, aging component, change amplitude, and development trend, the scores for each evaluation index at the factor layer for both risk probability and consequence are determined, and the corresponding cloud digital characteristics are subsequently computed. Second, the IAHP-CRITIC combined weighting method is employed to determine the weights of evaluation indexes within the TDCM framework. Finally, by integrating the risk cloud map and the proximity concept, the risk level is evaluated intuitively and precisely regarding risk probability and consequence. The method is applied to the risk assessment of a concrete-faced rockfill dam in Xinjiang, China. The results indicate strong agreement with the inspection conclusions of the project. Compared with the one-dimensional cloud model (ODCM), the proposed TDCM better captures multidimensional and random uncertainties, offering an effective and rapid tool for the quantitative assessment of dam safety risks.