Green and Low-Carbon Urban Renewal Capacity for Sustainable Infrastructure in China: A Spatial Network Analysis

Rapid urbanization concentrates infrastructure demand and places pressure on public services, environmental quality, and resilience. This study assesses provincial capacity to support green and low-carbon urban renewal in China. It examines how this capacity changes and relates to potential interprovincial connections. An index was constructed from 18 indicators across six dimensions for 30 provincial-level regions during 2020–2024. Dimensions received equal weights, with entropy weighting applied within each dimension. The analysis combined kernel-density estimation, spatial autocorrelation, a modified gravity model, social network analysis, and QAP regression. The national mean index increased from 0.222 to 0.360. Global Moran’s I was insignificant in 2020 but significantly positive in 2021–2024. The network of model-derived potential associations was sparse, with distinct incoming, outgoing, and brokerage positions. Urbanization-stage, fiscal-autonomy, and construction-capacity differences, together with geographical adjacency, were positively associated with these modeled ties. Capacity rankings and modeled network positions provide complementary information for identifying relative renewal-capacity shortfalls and screening potential cooperation partners.