From welfare to the environment: social policy, natural resources, and ecological sustainability in G20 economies

Ecological degradation has emerged as a critical challenge to achieving sustainable development, particularly in G20 economies where economic growth, social welfare objectives, and environmental constraints frequently interact. Using annual data for 17 G20 countries over 2000–2021, this study examines the effects of social welfare (SCWF), economic policy uncertainty (ECPX), trade openness (TROP), life expectancy (LIEX), natural resource rents (NARN), and tourism (TRSM) on ecological footprints (ECFP). Employing a Pooled Mean Group–Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model, the analysis captures both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships while accounting for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries. The findings reveal that natural resource rents and social welfare expansion significantly increase ecological footprints, indicating that resource-intensive development and consumption-oriented welfare systems can undermine environmental sustainability. Life expectancy and economic policy uncertainty are negatively associated with ecological footprints. These estimates do not establish causal effects or demonstrate the influence of environmental regulation, which is not measured in the model. Trade openness exerts mixed effects, increasing environmental pressure in the short run but promoting ecological sustainability in the long run, whereas tourism consistently intensifies ecological degradation. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs between economic prosperity, social progress, and environmental protection in G20 economies. From an SDG perspective, the results provide important implications for achieving SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). The study advocates integrated policy frameworks that promote sustainable resource management, environmentally responsible tourism, and balanced welfare strategies to support long-term ecological resilience and sustainable development.