A Three-Wave RI-CLPM Linking Adolescent Affect and their Engagement with Sustainable Development

This study examines reciprocal relationships between affect and engagement and disengagement with sustainable development in a cohort of 580 Portuguese adolescents assessed serendipitously before COVID-19 (ages 12-13), during lockdown (ages 13-14), and approximately one year after lockdown (ages 13-14). Random-intercept cross-lagged panel modelling (RI-CLPM) distinguished stable between-person differences from within-person fluctuations. Adolescents with higher negative affect generally reported lower engagement and higher disengagement. Within individuals, higher-than-usual negative affect before the pandemic predicted greater subsequent disengagement during lockdown. In turn, higher-than-usual negative affect during lockdown predicted greater subsequent engagement. No cross-lagged effects involving positive affect or from engagement or disengagement to affect were statistically significant. The findings suggest that negative affect may precede different responses to sustainable development across contextual conditions. Efforts to promote engagement should therefore consider adolescents’ emotional experiences alongside their circumstances, rather than assume that negative affect necessarily undermines engagement or that evoking it will encourage sustainable action.