Planning for the unplannable: how unpredictability influences principal work complexity

Given the established importance of school principals for a host of desirable outcomes researchers and policymakers alike have sought to better understand principal work. In this exploratory research study I asked the following research questions: (1) What do school principals identify as their most unpredictable work-related activities? (2) What strategies do principals use to address this unpredictability? and (3) In what ways do unpredictable work-related activities shape principal work complexity? An analysis of these data revealed three prominent themes. First, principals report unpredictability associated with staff absenteeism and the challenges of finding coverage for teachers and other staff. Second, the principals in this study describe the unpredictable nature of supporting student and staff emotional and mental health. And finally, the principals in this study report the unpredictable nature of responding to various mandates. Principals respond to these complex work activities in a variety of ways, including prioritizing what must get done, and what can wait (or not get done at all), and proactively protecting their time.