The Labour Market as a Structural Factor of Regional Depopulation in Bulgaria

The present study analyses regional depopulation and internal migration in Bulgaria through the prism of the labour market as a principal structural mechanism shaping demographic and spatial outcomes. The objective of the research is to demonstrate that demographic processes are neither autonomous nor primary, but rather constitute the accumulated outcome of long-term structural deficits in regional labour markets. The analysis covers the period 2013-2024/2025 and is based entirely on official data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI), Eurostat, and the European Commission. Through a combination of econometric and descriptive analysis at the regional level, the study demonstrates that differences in employment, sectoral structure, and the quality of labour opportunities systematically account for the direction and intensity of internal migration, as well as for the ensuing demographic outcomes. The findings indicate that social policies and institutional decisions, when not accompanied by a genuine expansion of sustainable employment, possess limited capacity to counteract depopulation and, in certain cases, may reinforce it. In the context of membership in the euro area, the study emphasises that Bulgaria’s regional resilience will depend to a decisive extent on the functioning of regional labour markets and their capacity to retain economically active population groups.