Russia’s Aviation Industry in the Current Geopolitical Environment: Status, Development Prospects, and Financing Mechanisms

Russia’s aviation industry has a distinguished history of development that has secured its strong position in the global market over decades. However, since 2022, the domestic sector has been facing geopolitical challenges and acute issues that have led to current stagnation and strategic uncertainty. The aim of the study is to thoroughly assess the state of the aviation industry, which is a strategically important sector of the Russian economy. It also aims to identify trends and potential directions for the future development of the industry in light of current processes in the global aviation market, geopolitical considerations, and sanctions restrictions. The methodological basis for this study is the application of content analysis, comparative analysis, factor analysis, and cluster analysis of information about the global aviation market and the domestic aviation industry. The study demonstrates that the civil aircraft manufacturing sector in the Russian Federation has been most vulnerable to anti-Russian sanctions, which has halted the supply of aircraft and spare parts, as well as maintenance and repair services. The article examines the market positioning and current state of the Russian aviation industry. Key challenges have been identified, including the prevalence of foreign-made aircraft in the Russian fleet, shortages and high levels of aircraft wear and tear, imbalances between the military and civil sectors, and a need for highly skilled personnel. The analysis of key drivers and trends in the global aviation market over the medium and long term is carried out, which shapes global development benchmarks and the context for industry transformation within Russia. The study also reviews strategic measures taken by the government as well as the financing mechanisms for the national fleet renewal program — to ensure Russia’s technological independence in aviation. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that the domestic civil aircraft manufacturing sector holds promising prospects, driven by the implementation of the Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Russian Aviation Industry, initiatives to update and extend this program until 2035, and combined financing mechanisms.