From Effort to Learning Expectations: How Habit Connects Technology Acceptance and Self-Regulated Learning in MOOCs

Abstract Higher education institutions now rely on MOOCs as a delivery channel for adult learners, lifelong learning, and SDG-4 commitments, yet the evaluation of MOOC effectiveness still leans on completion rates, satisfaction surveys, and platform analytics. These proxies say little about how learners actually experience the platform, or about the behavioural processes through which that experience feeds into expected outcomes. This study reconceptualises MOOC effectiveness from a learner-centred perspective and examines the behavioural pathway through which learners’ perceptions of the platform translate into expected performance gains. We used a two-study design with independent cohorts. Study 1 developed and validated a learner-centred measurement instrument through expert content validation and exploratory factor analysis (n = 2,442). Study 2 used a two-wave design (n = 2,471) to test the relationships among the validated constructs in a structural model grounded in technology acceptance and self-regulated learning perspectives. Perceived effort expectancy influenced outcome performance expectancy roughly twice as strongly as learning process expectancy, indicating that ease of engagement matters more to learners’ performance expectations than perceived pedagogical superiority of the format. Habitual learning behaviour was the behavioural mechanism through which both effort and process beliefs fed into outcome expectations. The findings shift MOOC effectiveness research in higher education away from platform features and completion rates and towards validated learner-centred constructs and the behavioural processes that produce sustained engagement. We draw implications for institutional evaluation practice, digital course design, and SDG-4 policy in developing-country higher education systems.