Residential adoption and grid impacts of heat pumps depend on equipment efficiency and rebates

Abstract Heat pumps have become the fastest-growing residential heating and cooling technology in the United States, but their economics and grid impacts depend on location, fuel prices, and household characteristics. We quantify the county-level benefits of heat pumps in the U.S. through geospatial analysis, techno-economic analysis, and grid-impact analysis. Minimum- and high-efficiency heat pumps could be economically viable without subsidies for 19% (10.4 million) of modeled single-family homes, rising to 25.0-26.4 million with Inflation Reduction Act rebates, or 14.4–15.5 million under new guidance eliminating fuel-switching project eligibility. If every modeled home adopts, net annual residential electricity demand rises 35% with minimum-efficiency models but barely changes with high-efficiency systems. Incentives that offset the higher upfront cost of efficient equipment could therefore help reduce this demand increase. This study can inform infrastructure investment and policy programs by identifying areas with the highest heat pump adoption potential and quantifying the range of grid impacts.