Standardizing industrial high-temperature heat pumps: A techno-economic analysis of modular concepts for paper and spray drying

High-temperature heat pumps (HTHP) present a promising pathway for decarbonizing industrial process heat at temperatures up to 200 °C. However, widespread deployment remains constrained by high integration costs and a distinct lack of prior research on modular concepts for HTHPs and their direct impact on cost reduction. This study addresses this gap through a techno-economic analysis targeting two specific drying processes in the paper and food industries. Thermal demands derived from market data establish the sizing basis for simulating 1 MW and 2 MW base modules. These baseline configurations are systematically scaled to 10 MW. Thermodynamically derived compressor requirements are cross-referenced with market available technologies. Performance validation confirms technical feasibility at COPs of 1.84 and 2.54. Standardized piston and screw compressor units adequately cover capacities up to 5 MW. Techno-economic modeling demonstrates capital recovery in less than one year against electric heating and 6 years for the 2 MW system versus natural gas-fired systems at €350/kW specific investment costs. Component standardization with 11 % capital expenditure reduction further accelerates payback by roughly one year. These results show that modular standardization significantly improves cost-effectiveness and thus provides a solid framework for the accelerated industrial adoption of HTHP technologies. The proposed modular framework offers a scalable design methodology for future work.