Educational Hypogamy and the Transition to Parenthood: The Moderating Role of Union Duration

Abstract The increasing educational attainment of women has contributed to a growing prevalence of educationally hypogamous unions, in which women have higher educational attainment than their male partners. Previous research has produced mixed findings on the association between educational hypogamy and the transition to parenthood, and little is known about how this association varies across union duration. This study examines how the transition to parenthood differs between hypogamous and homogamous couples across union duration. We use Austrian register data on 20,575 childless couples formed in 2011 and follow them over a ten-year period. We estimate discrete-time hazard models of the transition to first birth, accounting for union duration and sociodemographic differences between partners, and use a multiprocess modelling approach to account for selectivity related to union dissolution. The results show no overall fertility disadvantage for hypogamous couples. During the first years of the union, hypogamous couples have similar or slightly higher probabilities of first birth than homogamous couples. At longer union durations, however, the pattern reverses, with hypogamous couples displaying somewhat lower probabilities of first birth. Accounting for differences between partners in age, educational participation, immigrant status, and residential context does not substantially alter this pattern. The multiprocess model further indicates that selective union dissolution does not alter the observed differences in first-birth probabilities. Overall, the findings suggest that the association between educational hypogamy and fertility is modest and varies over the union duration, rather than reflecting a general fertility disadvantage among educationally hypogamous couples.