The Feature at the Ceiling: Counting Saturation Predicts a Break in the Cosmic-Ray Spectrum at 3.02e18 eV - and the Instrument That Settles It

Counting saturation caps independent modes at E_ind = 3.02e18 eV, fixed by the vacuum programme before any look at the cosmic-ray spectrum. The cap is a spectral event: the paper predicts a slope break within +-0.1 dex of 3.02e18 eV (0.604x the ankle, resolvable at Auger-class energy resolution) and designs the instrument that settles it - a blinded, pre-registered re-analysis with the break position fixed in advance. Detection simulation (SIMULATED, NOT MEASURED): an ankle-sized hardening step reaches detection class at 3e4 events above 1e18 eV and is invisible at 3e3; the marginal exposures are printed at full size.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24013745
Primary Topic
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
Type
preprint
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preprint

The Feature at the Ceiling: Counting Saturation Predicts a Break in the Cosmic-Ray Spectrum at 3.02e18 eV - and the Instrument That Settles It

William Alexander Aldred
2 links
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
preprint

The Feature at the Ceiling: Counting Saturation Predicts a Break in the Cosmic-Ray Spectrum at 3.02e18 eV - and the Instrument That Settles It

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

Counting saturation caps independent modes at E_ind = 3.02e18 eV, fixed by the vacuum programme before any look at the cosmic-ray spectrum. The cap is a spectral event: the paper predicts a slope break within +-0.1 dex of 3.02e18 eV (0.604x the ankle, resolvable at Auger-class energy resolution) and designs the instrument that settles it - a blinded, pre-registered re-analysis with the break position fixed in advance. Detection simulation (SIMULATED, NOT MEASURED): an ankle-sized hardening step reaches detection class at 3e4 events above 1e18 eV and is invisible at 3e3; the marginal exposures are printed at full size.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
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