Um arcabouço, vários fechamentos: Uma reconstrução teórica da proposta de André Lara Resende

This article reconstructs the theoretical framework underlying André Lara Resende’s proposal for a structural reduction in Brazil’s Selic policy rate and examines whether the outcome he emphasizes—less primary fiscal effort required to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio, alongside lower inflation—necessarily follows from the analytical relationships underpinning his argument. The reconstruction identifies a theoretical core grounded primarily in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) and neo-Fisherianism, supplemented by propositions concerning policy control over the short-term nominal interest rate, endogenous money, the structure of public debt, and open-economy dynamics. The analysis provisionally takes this theoretical construct as given, without assessing its substantive theoretical consistency or empirical relevance to the Brazilian economy. The article identifies sixteen dimensions of closure, organized into four analytical domains. A logical map of these dimensions, a matrix of alternative assumptions and their implications, and illustrative configurations show how a common core of theoretical relationships can accommodate multiple closures associated with distinct macroeconomic outcomes. The outcome emphasized by Lara Resende thus emerges as a conditional possibility, contingent on additional assumptions and the interaction of mechanisms that may reinforce, offset, or counteract one another. In particular, a reduction in the Selic rate may lower the primary fiscal effort required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio, provided that the effective real cost of public debt evolves favorably relative to economic growth. Such an outcome is compatible with the long-run neo-Fisherian mechanism but does not necessarily follow from it. By making explicit this plurality of closures and their implications, the article helps clarify the theoretical foundations of some of the disagreements surrounding Lara Resende’s proposal in the Brazilian economic debate.